In 2024, the electrification process in Europe stuttered – but as the discussions at the 27th CTI Symposium made clear, it is not about to stop. Other interesting topics in Berlin included insights on India as a future market or advances in digitalization and artificial intelligence. And the Software-Defined Vehicle is about to become more than a buzzword.
2024 had several surprises for the automotive industry, particularly the lack of European sales figures for all-electric passenger BEVs. That does not signal the demise of electromobility; after all, no sector ever experiences uninterrupted growth. But it has revived the topic of plug-in hybrids, or more precisely, a new type of range extender known as EREVs (Range Extended Electric Vehicles) or REEVs. These highly electrified serial or serial-parallel hybrids are standard fare in China today.
Naturally, these developments also played a role at the CTI Symposium Berlin, which took place on December 3 and 4, 2024, at the usual venue, Estrel Hotel in Neukölln, Berlin. Hosted by Prof. Malte Jaensch, Chair of Sustainable Mobile Powertrains at the Technical University of Munich, there were three key themes in the plenary lectures and panel discussions: How are markets and regulations developing in Europe and future markets such as India? Which drive concepts are gaining ground in passenger cars and commercial vehicles? Finally, a topic playing an increasingly important role: digitalization and new opportunities based on artificial intelligence.
India – the next big market?
For some observers, India is an upcoming market with great potential. In his lecture “Indian Automotive Market – Trends and Regulation Insights”, Amit Gupta, CEO of Hero Motors, provided some statistics: India is the world’s fifth largest market economy, with a population of 1.43 billion. With a median age of just 29.5 years (compared to 42.5 in Europe), India is a very young country with vast potential for future car buyers. Gupta divided developments over the last few decades into five phases: Before 1982, there were just five car manufacturers, all Indian companies. From 1983 to 1991, Maruti dominated the market. From 1991 to 2010, a good 20 companies emerged, offering mainly small cars. By 2020, premium vehicles and (like everywhere else in the world) SUVs increasingly entered the mix. Then, after 2020, electrification gained momentum in India, and exports grew. Hero Motors itself supplies a range of drive components. Gupta said electrification in India had gained momentum recently, rising to around 1.7 million electric vehicles in 2024 from around 146,000 in 2010. However, more than half of these were two-wheelers. Incidentally, this growth was supported by a program called „Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles“ (FAME II), which expired in March 2024.
Is regulation harmful or valuable?
That leads to the question of how far regulations can assist in introducing new technology – or as the first panel discussion put it: „Does Regulation Kill Innovation?” The participants were Dr. Peter Mock, Managing Director of ICCT Europe, Dr. Manfred Schuckert, Head of Regulatory Strategy & Int. Hydrogen Strategy, Daimler Truck AG, and Hui Zhang, Managing Director NIO Europe. The moderator was Ulrich Walter.
Manfred Schuckert called for regulations that are properly thought through. Specifically, he criticized the tank-to-wheel model still used in Europe, which ignores all other CO₂ emissions during the product cycle. By this logic, he noted ironically, even when hydrogen is burned – a process that is CO₂-neutral – the CO₂ from the intake air gets measured at the exhaust. Schuckert also pointed out that commercial vehicle manufacturers, particularly, depend on the energy infrastructure. Drawing politicians’ attention to requirements such as the number of charging stations needed for electric truck fleets, he said, was a complex and ongoing task. He also questioned whether political regulations are always implemented at the desired speed. He said that the EU Commission is often unwilling to follow industry recommendations; things were very different in China.
Peter Mock, in contrast, came out in favor of legal regulations. He also opposed that relaxing European regulations was justified if emissions were shifted to other world regions. Asked whether it might now be time to make up with the industry after Dieselgate, he replied: „No, this completely destroyed the relationship, basically because it was just one scandal too many.“ Mock said the entire automotive industry had lied for years and was astonished that the industry now „dared“ to appeal to the government once again, arguing that the jobs it provided were crucial.
In addition to his role as a representative of carmaker Nio, Hui Zhang provided some interesting insights into how a Chinese expert perceives matters. He said the EU was over-regulated, an opinion he backed up with corresponding statements made by Emmanuel Macron. Zhang said every innovation needs space for competition first; regulations should only be the next step. In other words: „Be open-minded before you start regulating.“ Zhang also said that normal consumers need incentives. They were cost-driven, and in this sense, „the user is always right“. Energy costs in Germany were far too high, and it was only natural for users to react.
Securing raw materials and energy sources
Regarding energy and raw materials, Karin Pittel, ifo Institute, offered extensive insights and several recommendations in her lecture: „Building a Sustainable Mobility Future: Challenges from Energy and Resource Markets“. She said the availability of lithium, and even more so of cobalt, was critical, especially since Germany depended 100 percent on imports. Otherwise, fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal would still be around for a long time, and prices were likely to fall. This, in turn, would make electric cars less attractive to buyers. The switch to hydrogen is not that easy either, said Pittel, as production and consumption sites are scattered around the globe. She closed on the topic of supply chain disruption, saying this hit Germany harder than other Western countries during Covid-19, cutting productivity there by 8 percent. So, what can we do in the face of all these dependencies? Pittel believes we must diversify more, improve cooperation in Europe, and closely examine how we view conflicts between economic and humanitarian objectives. We need to strengthen our information base to identify risks early – and not forget the need to “really do something”, which typically can happen when the alertness after a crisis goes down.
Are swappable batteries coming?
In addition to participating in the first panel discussion, Hui Zhang also lectured on „Nio’s Power Strategy for Europe – Combining Mobility and Energy Transition“. Nio was founded in China in 2014 and has around 1,000 employees in Europe, with sites in Germany in Berlin, Brandenburg, and Munich. Nio currently operates 2,500 Power Swap Stations worldwide, with 58 in Europe at the end of 2024. So, what are the advantages of swappable batteries? According to Zhang, they are as fast as refueling – even fast charging doesn’t come close. And with automatic swapping, you don’t even have to leave your car. Vehicle prices are less dependent on the battery, and the batteries will be checked every time you swap. You can even swap to a different-size battery if needed. When a delegate asked whether a swap system would not require more batteries, Zhang cited this greater flexibility as a counter-argument. As the lecture title made clear, Zhang also sees exchange batteries as part of the energy infrastructure, saying they can be part of a grid while stored at the swap stations. It will be interesting to see whether Nio succeeds in the European market. By the way, drivers can charge their swap battery EVs directly like any other EV.
BEVs and supplementary hydrogen for long hauls
As Christian Krajewski, Daimler Truck AG, showed in his lecture „Daimler Truck on the Way to CO₂ Neutrality”, Daimler Truck’s primary strategy for its commercial vehicles is BEV, with fuel cell for long-haul applications too. As the speaker pointed out, the EU requires commercial vehicles to emit 15 percent less CO₂ from 2025 on and 45 percent less by 2030, compared to 2019. The Daimler Truck portfolio includes the eActros 300/400 models for medium-range work, the eActros 600, and the GenH2 Truck with fuel cell. In his lecture, Krajewski focussed on the eActros 600. Its range is 500 km from a 621 kWh battery, and it can charge from 20 to 80% in less than half an hour using megawatt charging. Efficiency is always 95% or higher. Instead of a central drive, Daimler has opted for an eAxle, which is more compact and efficient. At 750 V, the drive delivers 600 kWp and 400 kW of continuous power. Inverter-to-wheel efficiency is 92%, while wheel torque tops 40,000 Nm. The four-speed gearbox is interesting, with steps 1/2 and 3/4 implemented as powershifts. Krajewski said Daimler still saw fuel cells as suitable for long-haul transportation. He is not in favor of H2 combustion engines, given the load profile of heavy trucks meant that fuel cells would use hydrogen more efficiently.
Electrification keeps the ICE running
Do combustion engines still have a future? That question was highly topical, given the modest BEV sales figures in 2024. Under the heading „Back from the Dead? ICE in Passenger Vehicles“, moderator Ulrich Walter discussed the issue with Dr. Norbert Alt, FEV, Prof. Maximilian Brauer from the TU Berlin, Dr. Tobias Block from the eFuel Alliance, and Prof. Markus Lienkamp from the TU Munich.
As head strategist of the eFuel Alliance, it was no surprise that Tobias Block sees a future for combustion engines. But he also spoke about the challenges of offering eFuels in sufficient quantities in the EU. He said there won’t be many investments if the legislation only focuses on niche markets. For example, in 2030, there would be only 0.7 % eFuels mandates for aviation and only 1 % for the maritime sector. Another example is that eFuel makers had to produce eFuels using only renewable electricity from installations not older than 36 months. BEVs otherwise were allowed to use fossil-based electricity. Block also cited a joint study with Porsche Consulting. Based on tracking data from 430 projects, the study predicts an annual worldwide production volume of 11 billion liters of eFuels in 2030. Block believes consumers should have the opportunity to run combustion engines on CO₂-neutral fuels if they wish.
Norbert Alt spoke passionately in favor of electrification. Technically, photovoltaic charging power could be produced for 10 cents/kWh in Germany, allowing people to opt for BEVs immediately. However, Germany needed to speed up development activities. Otherwise, „the Chinese will end up doing everything“. Interestingly, Alt pointed out that most development work on combustion engines now also takes place in China, saying Germany should not yield its position in that field either. Looking ahead, he sees combustion engines primarily as part of REEVs, or range extended electric vehicles. These were a major trend in China, and they would also be coming to Europe. REEVs were basically variants of electric platforms with a long electric range, designed as serial or serial-parallel hybrids. Technology-wise, serial hybrids were a simple solution – and with modern inverters, conversion losses no longer played a significant role.
Markus Lienkamp said hydrogen was not an option for him, as it was simply not affordable. Based on a realistic energy mix, the Technical University of Munich had calculated that due to the battery’s CO₂ burden, BEVs made less sense than rental cars for annual mileages under 5,000 km. Specific low-mileage applications, such as fire trucks, could run on eFuels. However, diesel might be preferable in terms of overall environmental impact. In principle, despite the current slump, the long-term trend was for BEVs. Lienkamp advocated using a push-pull strategy to nudge consumers in that direction.
Taking up the discussion’s title question, Maximilian Brauer began by saying that hybrids, and hence combustion engines, were actually experiencing steady growth, not a revival. Like his fellow participants, he expects all-electric drives to dominate in the future. Still, he also believes in creating a level playing field for eFuels. In terms of technology, Brauer says German manufacturers definitely do not lag behind China. His take on consumer behavior in Germany was succinct: „As long as BEVs stay expensive, people will stick with combustion engines.“
Summing up, all the participants agreed on two points: Electrification comes first; combustion engines will still be around, albeit mainly as servants in highly electrified vehicle platforms.
AI agents assist drivers
‘Digitalization and AI methods’ is a topic of growing importance at the CTI Symposium. There were two plenary lectures on the subject – one from Sabine Calvo, Renault, and the other from William Wei, FTP Automotive.
William Wei focused on how AI ‘agents’ can help drivers operate their vehicles more efficiently. Up to now, the vehicle code has been static, making functions and their operation fixed and rigid. The future belonged to ‘agents’ powered by AI and Large Language Models (LLM) with functionality that was neither static nor fixed but defined through end-to-end training. This method trains systems as a whole, not as separate functional modules. Wei spoke of the ‘brain’ of the car, saying drivers could, for example, operate their vehicle by communicating with it freely. In the next era of the „software defined vehicle,“ Wei foresees an AI infrastructure that is integrated down to chip level – a form of in-car Edge AI Computing. Functional safety, however, (for example during autonomous driving) was always rule-based, and hence required its own safety layer in the vehicle. This layer would sit as a safeguard between the vehicle sensors and the LLMs and agent level.
Digital Twin in all development stages
Dr. Sabine Calvo is Vice President Engineering Performance, Validations & Digital Transformation at the Renault Group. She described „How Digital Transformation will Support Breakthrough in Time-To-Market Acceleration and Cost Reduction” using various examples. Renault now needed just two years to develop a car. Digital Twin played a significant role in practically all vehicle functions. As a result, validation costs have been halved since 2019, she said. Calvo named three steps in digital simulation: The vehicle, the embedded systems, and immersive simulation. As a vehicle example, she used a crash test with a digital twin, showing almost no difference between simulation and reality. Other fields included aerodynamics, acoustics, strength, and thermal management. Examples of embedded systems include ADAS, systems & software, and energy management. Here, Calvo noted that virtual ADAS covered several million kilometers in 2024. Immersive simulation is used to simulate the design of car interiors – again, with hardly any visible differences. Renault also operates a closed driving simulator that allows drivers to experience the properties of the digital twin. Finally, Calvo touched briefly on AI, saying it was already used to make pre-development design suggestions. This led to prototypes with higher functional maturity at lower costs for physical tests.
Digital, Circular, Electric
In his lecture „Innovation as Driver of the Future,” Rudolf Bencker, BMW, named three core focus areas: „Digital, Circular and Electric.“ In digitalization, BMW backs features including panoramic in-vehicle displays, in-car gaming, mixed reality or the „Car Expert” – an AI-like in-car assistant based on large language models (LLM). At BMW, Circular Economy includes the use of new materials, circular manufacturing, and more efficient use of resources in general. While BMW is known for its open-minded approach to drive technology, the manufacturer’s BEVs are remarkably successful – the company sold its one-millionth BEV in 2024. BMW also continues to pursue plug-in hybrids, combustion engines, and fuel cell drives such as the one in the iX5. This comprises a 170 kW buffer battery, the 295 kW electric motor, the 125 kW fuel cells, and hydrogen tanks with a capacity of 6 kg. Even for passenger cars, Bencker sees hydrogen as a building block that can help to diversify energy infrastructures in regions with few charging options or when high-speed refueling is essential.
Electrification, AI and new markets
Of course, the animated discussion about the pros and cons of various drive concepts at the 27th CTI Symposium was not the first of its kind. In his summary, chair Prof. Malte Jaensch shared his opinion of BEVs, saying the right strategy is quite simple: Where possible, electrify. Where not, use hydrogen if possible or e-fuels if not. For passenger cars at least, this was a very simple rule of thumb. Jaensch was equally clear on AI, saying it may still be primarily about in-vehicle operation, as William Wei showed in his lecture, but AI in cars would develop rapidly. Today, AI helped us open windows; tomorrow it would help to improve autonomous driving; and after that, who knows? Jaensch followed up with two more insights: First, we should bear in mind that India is currently the only large market with strong growth potential. Second, a reminder to politicians: Dependable regulation is at least as important as „correct“ regulation.
Given the recent political upheavals, this will likely be a challenging task in 2025 for the industry. The next opportunity to discuss future opportunities and technologies will be at the CTI Symposium Novi
in Michigan (May 13 and 14, 2025). There will also be special events for women in automotive, students, young professionals, and startups in the powertrain industry. We warmly invite you to participate as a speaker, delegate or exhibitor!
